Legendreball

This week’s rankings include strength of schedule. To balance the weight of schedule strength and projected winning %, I am basing it a regression of actual winning percentage by SOS and projected winning% (2010-211) and adjusted by the ratio of the magnitude of the standard coefficients. This will be a moving target. This week, the projected winning % accounts for 82.1% of the rankings and strength of schedule makes up the remaining 17.9%.

The Chargers (+7), Buccaneers (+6), Saints (+4), Redskins (+4), Ravens (+3), Titans (+3), Bengals (+3), Eagles (+3), and Falcons (+3) jumped the most over the past week. The Steelers (-8), Browns (-7), Bills (-4), Raiders (-4), and Dolphins (-3) had the steepest declines.

Minnesota (-2) over Kansas City Wrong KC 22-17
Oakland (+4) over New England Wrong NE 31-19
Dallas (-1.5) over Detroit Wrong Det 34-30
New Orleans (-7) over Jacksonville Right NO 23-10
San Francisco (+9) over Philadelphia Right SF 24-23
Washington (-2) over St. Louis Right WAS 17-10
Carolina (+6) over Chicago Right CHI 34-29
Giants (-1) over Arizona Right NYG 31-27
Miami (+7) over San Diego Wrong SD 26-16
Green Bay (-12.5) over Denver Right GB 49-23
Indianapolis (+10) over Tampa Bay Right TB 24-17

7-4 (63.6%) this week. The goal of this exercise is to pick games over the season at a percentage higher than the 52.381% needed to break even. It is something I could never do on my own.

The first week of picks. I have always been horrible at prioritizing, but Minnesota rates at the top pick and is in bold.

Minnesota (-2) over Seattle
Oakland (+4) over New England
Dallas (-1.5) over Detroit
New Orleans (-7) over Jacksonville
San Francisco (+9) over Philadelphia
Washington (-2) over St. Louis
Carolina (+6) over Chicago
Giants (-1) over Arizona
Miami (+7) over San Diego
Green Bay (-12.5) over Denver
Indianapolis (+10) over Tampa Bay

A lot of points to give for a team with a protected winning percentage below .500. Despite how bad the Colts have been, the QB switch could improve their woeful performance. This line would be accurate with Collins at QB but Painter makes it more even given how Tampa is not as strong offensively to take advantage of the Colts weak pass defense and how their defense is average at best. The Bucs have played below average against strong competition while the Colts have been terrible against stronger opponents. Still, 10 points is too many. Pick: Colts.

Two strong defensive teams facing two average offenses. The Jets have been below average in stopping the other team from dictating tempo on the ground and have turned the ball over and not protected the vaunted Sanchise. The Ravens have performed better so far but the Jets have faced stronger competition. An even matchup where the home team should be favored by only three points. The extra half point does not mean this should be anything other than Pick: Stayaway.

An accurately priced line. Green Bay has been a superior team in every respect except defensing the pass. Denver does nothing well, especially throwing the ball. Pick: Green Bay.

The Chargers get a touchdown in this game solely out of reputation and a superficial look at the standings. The Dolphins have not won a game while the Chargers have won two, but they are both equally as bad. Neither team can stop anybody (granted, both were ripped apart by Tom Brady) but they are not that good on offense either. They have similar winning percentages while Miami has played stronger competition. The Chargers should be no more than a 3.5 or 4 point favorites. Miami also plays stronger on the orad than at home. Pick: Dolphins.

The Giants seem the clear choice here. They have moved the ball efficiently and the Cardinals have been below average on defense. Kevin Kolb has passed well and the Giants have been average in stopping it. The Giants have performed better against stronger competition. They might be overvalued by a point or two but if you are going to bet on a NFC West team out of the division, there better be a good reason. Pick: Giants.

A solid test for both teams. The Texans have lost to the only good team they have faced as have the Steelers. The Texans have moved the ball efficiently through the air and the Steelers have been the best at stopping it so far this year. The Steelers have had the luxury of facing Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter, and Tavaris Jackson but they did lead the league in stopping the pass last year. Despite last week, the Texans have been good on defense so far. The Steelers will test them. Both teams have solid projected winning percentages against poor competition. Their actual records and the line are accurate. The winner will prove themselves as a top AFC team. Pick: Stayaway.

A real test for the Bears. Their defense ranks above average in all categories and will face one of the more efficient passing attacks. Their offense has real problems protecting the QB and controlling the tempo of the game. Teams can throw against Carolina. If the Bears line can not control the Panthers, their season is pretty much over. The Bears have a slightly below average projected winning percentage against above average competition. The Panthers have performed poorly against better competition. The Bears get too many points given their weaknesses and Newton will play 60 minutes and put up late points. Pick: Carolina.

Easiest pick of the week. Any time you can give only a point and a half against the Chiefs, take it. Kansas City has been awful in every respect and are on pace for a 16 loss season both in their actual and projected winning percentage. They came close to a poor San Diego team last week but the Vikings have performed significantly better than their winless record. Pick: Minnesota.

Two bad teams playing poorly but Seattle is the league worst in passing offense, protecting the QB, not getting turnovers or controlling the football on defense. It is a miracle they have won a game. However, Atlanta has been terrible on offense and defense. Atlanta is favored only because of reputation and finishing 13-3 last year. Seattle did win a playoff game, but their performance this year is less of a surprise. The Seahawks would be the play here but no sane person should bet on them. Pick: Stayaway.

Despite the excitement of the comebacks at home against Oakland and New England, Buffalo has been middle of the road on offense except for protecting Fitzpatrick and getting turnovers. Their pass defense is average but the Bengals do not throw efficiently. The Bengals have defending the pass effectively and gotten after the QB. Buffalo has performed better so far against strong competition but this game seems closer by the numbers than the perception of their seasons so far. Buffalo seems slightly overvalued but not by much. Pick: Stayaway.

An interesting matchup between teams with distinct strengths and weaknesses. For a team that paid Chris Johnson a ton to run the ball, Tennessee has been throwing and throwing it effectively. Cleveland comes into the game defending the pass well and getting after the QB. Teams have been able to control the ball on the ground against the Browns, but Cleveland has taken care of the ball and protected McCoy. Tennessee has a strong projected winning percentage against average teams. Cleveland has been above average against poor competition. The line should be closer to the home team, Cleveland, by three given a close to even match, but Cleveland by one is hard to argue with. Pick: Stayaway.

Washington does just about everything better than St. Louis. Their offense numbers are average while the Rams have been horrible. The only area that Rams have an advantage on is pass defense but given the anemic air attacks by the Rams, the Redskins should have their way defensively as they are one of the best at getting after opposing QBs and taking the ball away. The Redskins have performed well this year against strong competition. The Rams have also faced strong competition but that score is more heavily influenced by how bad they have been. Pick: Washington

Neither team has efficiently passed the ball this year and have relied on controlling the game on the ground. They both run the ball in half of all their plays. Alex Smith has protected the ball well while the line has not protected him, something the Eagles will exploit. Philadelphia has turned the ball over too much which could damage them in this game as the 49ers are one of the best in taking the ball away. Both teams are in the middle of the pack defending the pass. San Francisco has been better at controlling tempo on defense and forcing their opponent to throw. The 49ers have a better projected winning percentage and have played tougher opponents than Philadelphia. Despite this being a west coast team flying east for an early game, Philadelphia giving 8 points, with or without Vick at QB, is too much given how each team has performed so far. Pick: 49ers

Vastly superior New Orleans should be able to win this easily. New Orleans is average against the pass and does not get at the opposing QB but this should not be a factor against one of the weakest passing attacks in the NFL. Jacksonville doesn’t pass efficiently, protect the ball, or protect their QB. They do control the tempo of the game by running more than any other team, but this is more a result of their weakness passing the ball than in keeping opponents off balance. They do defend the pass better than most teams, but if they fall behind early, the game could quickly get away from them. Also, expect New Orleans to get sacks and force Jacksonville to throw. New Orleans has played well this year against strong opposition while Jacksonville has played poorly against average opposition. Pick: New Orleans

A fascinating early matchup that will prove conclusively whether the Lions are for real or not. While having a perfect season so far, the Lions have played less than stellar opposition. They crushed a weak Kansas City (0.000 projecting winning %) and so-so Tampa Bay (.411), while narrowly beating a so far average Minnesota (.499) team. They are among the best in throwing the ball, protecting the ball, defending the pass, and getting after the opposing QBs. Dallas’s strength lies in passing the ball, getting after the QB, and forcing the opponent to pass. They have also beaten quality opponents in the Jets (.548), 49ers (.658), and Redskins (.601). The decisive factor will be how well Detroit’s pass defense can handle Tony Romo and the efficient Cowboy passing attack which is far superior than what they have faced so far. Oddsmakers are giving a lot of respect to the Lions in making them a one point underdog on the road against a quality team. They haven’t earned it yet, but will if they win this game. Pick: Cowboys

A close matchup if one looks just at 2011 data and not the recent history of the two teams. New England’s passing attack leads the league and should be difficult to stop if Brady throws just to his teammates this week. The New England defense is one of the worst against the pass, but Campbell is not as well suited to take advantage of this as Ryan Fitzpatrick was. The Raiders win by controlling the game on the ground as they run on half their plays. Both teams protect their QB well. Oakland takes the ball away more than the Patriots do. Opponents throw nearly two-thirds of the time against both defenses but Oakland makes it harder for the opponent to move the ball in the air. Oakland has a slightly higher projected winning percentage than the Patriots and Oakland has played a tougher schedule. This matchup looks even which would mean Oakland should be favored by three points. Instead, New England is favored by 4.5. If Oakland is for real, they win this game. Pick: Oakland

The following are the week 3 rankings. There have not been enough games yet to factor in the strength of schedule (SOS) variable since 1/3 of it is dependent on how the opposing team played in the individual game against each team. Detroit’s strength of schedule is too reflected in how Detroit performed against those three teams. As the season goes on and more games are played, SOS becomes more relevant in evaluating teams overall. Click here to read about how the projected winning percentage is calculated:

Welcome. This blog is my attempt at trying to understand this year’s NFL season. I use a model I have been playing around with for several years. Ideally, by the end of the season, the model will spot inconsistencies in the point spread and be a better descriptor of a team’s quality than the standings. Click on the About tab to learn more about the process I use.