Week 5 Stayaways

Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-2.5)
Arizona @ Minnesota (-2.5)
New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-9)

Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-2.5)
Two bad teams not playing well. Both teams are terrible on offense and defense. They have roughly similar projected winning percentages and have played a tough schedule (results from opposing teams playing them). This game is a tossup and the line reflects that. Stayaway.

Indianapolis Colts Kansas City Chiefs

On Offense On Defense
Yards per Pass Attempt 5.381 (30) 7.246 (20)
Turnovers per Play 0.026 (19) 0.019 (23)
Sacks Allowed per Play 0.043 (22) 0.019 (30)
% Running Attempts 35.2% (29) 48.1% (27)

On Defense On Offense
Yards per Pass Attempt 7.795 (26) 5.705 (26)
Turnovers per Play 0.025 (14) 0.045 (32)
Sacks per Play 0.025 (25) 0.036 (18)
% Running Attempts 50% (30) 45.9% (6)
Projecting Winning % 0.178 0.177
Opponents Projected Win% 0.545 0.607
Actual Winning % 0.000 0.250

Arizona @ Minnesota (-2.5)
Two not playing as poorly as their record indicates but not particularly strong on either side of the ball. Minnesota does not pass efficiently and Arizona does not defend the pass well. Arizona is better at throwing the ball and Minnesota is not great at stopping it. Minnesota does hold on to the ball, controls tempo on offense, and gets after the QB. Arizona is not relatively strong at doing anything. Both are playing slightly below average and are playing slightly better opponents than they are. An even match that is priced accordingly. Stayaway.

Minnesota Vikings Arizona Cardinals

On Offense On Defense
Yards per Pass Attempt 5.577 (27) 7.49 (24)
Turnovers per Play 0.013 (2) 0.022 (18)
Sacks Allowed per Play 0.043 (21) 0.036 (16)
% Running Attempts 48.1% (4) 41.9% (17)

On Defense On Offense
Yards per Pass Attempt 7.435 (23) 7.477 (13)
Turnovers per Play 0.012 (29) 0.029 (24)
Sacks per Play 0.046 (6) 0.05 (26)
% Running Attempts 35.9% (10) 41.3% (14)
Projecting Winning % 0.458 0.434
Opponents Projected Win% 0.503 0.457
Actual Winning % 0.000 0.250

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-9)
Two teams whose strengths match up against the other teams strengths and whose weaknesses coincide with their opponent’s weaknesses. The Patriots are the best team moving the football in the air and the Jets are one of the best teams at stopping it. The Patriots hold on to the ball (especially if you take away the second half against Buffalo) and the Jets take it away. The Patriots are the worst at defending the pass but the Jets are below average in throwing it. The Patriots do force turnovers and the Jets don’t protect the ball well. If Sanchez plays like he has most of the season, the Jets will lose. However, the Pats beat the Jets 45-3 at home during the regular season but lost in the playoffs. The Jets were responsible for two of the Patriots three losses last year, and beat the Patriots last year after being humiliated on prime time national television by the Baltimore Ravens in their stadium opener. And while Sanchez can look horrible in one game, or one quarter, or even one series, he has the ability to turn on a dime and play effectively. Nine points is way too many in this game even though it is likely the Patriots could win by 40 points again. They could just as easily lose despite the Jets not performing at even an average level. Stayaway.

New England Patriots New York Jets
On Offense On Defense
Yards per Pass Attempt 9.442 (1) 6.059 (7)
Turnovers per Play 0.019 (8) 0.04 (6)
Sacks Allowed per Play 0.015 (3) 0.036 (18)
% Running Attempts 38.1% (21) 49.4% (29)
On Defense On Offense
Yards per Pass Attempt 8.78 (32) 6.449 (21)
Turnovers per Play 0.034 (7) 0.04 (29)
Sacks per Play 0.023 (28) 0.044 (23)
% Running Attempts 34.3% (7) 36.8% (25)
Projecting Winning % 0.683 0.431
Opponents Projected Win% 0.530 0.668
Actual Winning % 0.750 0.500


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