Monthly Archives: October 2011

New Orleans (-4.5) over Tampa Bay Wrong TB 26-20 Oakland (-6.5) over Cleveland Correct Oak 24-17 Houston (+8) over Baltimore Wrong Balt 29-14 Cincinnati (-7) over Indianapolis Correct Cinn 27-17 Carolina (+4) over Atlanta Wrong Atl 31-17 Washington (+1.5) over … Continue reading →

Two bad teams playing terribly. The only Jets strength is defending the pass and Miami can’t pass. Seems like the Jets would be the pick but their offense has been horrendous. Miami has played a tough schedule but should not … Continue reading →

A properly valued game. Vegas has it essentially at pickem. Minnesota should handle the Bear offense but they can’t throw the ball effectively. The Bears have won one more game but the Viking have played better overall against weaker competition. … Continue reading →

Real value here. New Orleans is effectively at throwing the ball and defending the pass. Tampa is not good at either. Both have played a similar schedule strength but New Orleans has performed much better. While Tampa is not as … Continue reading →

This game features the best passing attack in New England against a good pass defense. The Patriots defend Brady well while the Cowboys get after the passer. The Patriots pass defense is atrocious while the Cowboys are close to New … Continue reading →

Two teams similar in many respects. The Raiders are average at throwing the ball and the Browns are average at defending it. Teams can dictate tempo on the ground against the Browns and the Raiders will likely do that. Cleveland … Continue reading →

Normally, this should be an even game. Both teams have played well all year. Houston is effective on offense and defense while the Raven are great defensively and average on offense. Should be a 3-4 point line at Baltimore. The … Continue reading →

The Bills don’t defend the pass well but they get turnovers, the Giants weakness. The line reflects the disaster last week by the Giants against Seattle and the Bills beating Philadelphia. Both Seattle and Philly are not good. If Buffalo … Continue reading →

A terrible game on tap. Cincinnati is not great passing but Indianapolis is awful against the pass. The Colts are not great passing the ball and Cincinnati can stop the pass. That should be worth the 4 points above the … Continue reading →

Seems too easy. The Falcons are terrible on offense and Carolina is terrible against the pass. The Panthers can pass and the Falcons can’t defend it. Pick: Carolina. Atlanta Falcons Carolina Panthers On Offense On Defense Yards per Pass Attempt … Continue reading →

Best game of the weekend. Two teams playing well and both great at holding on to the ball and taking it away from their opponent, with the 49ers great at dictating tempo on both sides of the ball. Predicting turnovers … Continue reading →

Seems too easy with the Redskins playing well and Eagles not. The Eagles have no business being 1.5 favorites on the road against a team playing better than they are. Pick: Redskins Philadelphia Eagles Washington Redskins On Offense On Defense … Continue reading →

Difficult to see how Jacksonville will score given how they are the second worst passing the ball and the Steelers are the best at defending the pass. Should be a good test for Rothlesberger (however you spell his name) against … Continue reading →

Not enough points for Green Bay here. The Packers throw the ball well and the Rams are OK at defending it. However, the Rams have no ability to exploit the Packers pass defense as they are the worst team in … Continue reading →

The Giants, Chargers, and Packers have had the easiest schedules so far. Expect some losses coming up, especially for the Chargers as they are playing like an average team. The Falcons and Browns could face a long season. Minnesota has … Continue reading →

The Cowboys, Jets, Rams, and Broncos have had the toughest schedules so far this year. The Saints, Raiders, Steelers, and Cowboys to a lesser extent have thrived despite their early draw. Team Win% Projected Opponent Projected Dallas Cowboys 0.500 0.727 … Continue reading →

The following 9 teams have lost at least a half game more so far than what their current team statistics indicate they should have. The Cowboys and Texans are the only teams with at least a .500 record so far … Continue reading →

The following 10 teams have won at least a half game more so far than what their current team statistics indicate they should have. San Diego, Tampa, Seattle, and Green Bay all have won at least one more game than … Continue reading →

Buffalo (+3) over Philadelphia Win Buff 31-24 Oakland (+5) over Houston Win Oak 25-20 New Orleans (-6.5) over Carolina Loss NO 30-27 Cincinnati (-2.5) over Jacksonville Win Cinn 30-20 Tennessee (+3) over Pittsburgh Loss Pitt 38-17 NY Giants (-10) over … Continue reading →

Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-2.5) Arizona @ Minnesota (-2.5) New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-9) Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-2.5) Two bad teams not playing well. Both teams are terrible on offense and defense. They have roughly similar … Continue reading →

This week’s rankings include strength of schedule. To balance the weight of schedule strength and projected winning %, I am basing it a regression of actual winning percentage by SOS and projected winning% (2010-211) and adjusted by the ratio of … Continue reading →

Minnesota (-2) over Kansas City Wrong KC 22-17 Oakland (+4) over New England Wrong NE 31-19 Dallas (-1.5) over Detroit Wrong Det 34-30 New Orleans (-7) over Jacksonville Right NO 23-10 San Francisco (+9) over Philadelphia Right SF 24-23 Washington … Continue reading →