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Houston and Green Bay stay at the top. We will see how Houston fares with Matt Leinart at QB. If he doesn’t turn the ball over and has just an average yards per pass attempt, the Texans might not be as bad off as they are being predicted. Their defense is the strongest in football and keeps them at the top of the rankings. After a relatively stable week 9, lots of movement in the ranking based on some lopsided performances. The Ravens (-9), Buccaneers (-8), Bills (-6), Chargers (-6), Redskins (-4), and Lions (-4) had the most dramatic falls. The Dolphins (+6), Raiders (+5), Patriots (+5), Titans (+5), Broncos (+5), and Seahawks (+4) rose the most.

Also worth noting that while the top team resides in the AFC, the next six spots are held by NFC teams followed by the Raiders, Steelers, and Patriots. Since the highest NFC South team resides at #11, one of the following six teams ranked in the top 7 will not make the playoffs – Packers, 49ers, Giants, Cowboys, Lions, and Bears.

In examining the stats that play the biggest role in determining a team’s winning percentage, the Houston Texans currently represent the only team in the NFL ranked in the top 10 in all of them. They are one of the best teams at throwing the ball efficiently, protecting Schaub, keeping the ball, and controlling tempo on offense. On defense, they have become hard to throw against, they get after the QB, take the ball away, and force the other team to throw. In all of these areas, they have improved markedly over last year.

Compared to last year, Schaub is playing about as well as he did in 2010 when the Texans finished at 6-10. He is passing at the same rate, and along with the running backs, have held on to the ball. They have improved their protection of him and have run the ball more and controlled the clock. This has been aided by their dramatic improvement on defense. Last year, they were the second worst pass defense. This year, they are the third best. They didn’t get turnovers last year. This year, they are. And they have become one of the best at sacking the opposing QB after a below average performance last year.

As a result of their overall improvement on both sides of the ball, teams are falling behind and are forced to throw the ball. Opponents can no longer control tempo on offense. The Texans have benefited from an easy schedule (opponents have a projected .461 winning percentage) but have an overall projected winning percentage of .871.

Sitting atop the AFC South with a 5-3 record, the Texans are one of the most underachieving teams given their underlying stats, but they will likely cruise into the playoffs and be a difficult out for any team given both their strengths and lack of weaknesses.

No big changes this week. The Bears moved up five spots to #8 and the Bills fall five spots to #11. Tampa falls three spots. Most other teams stay where they were last week.

Lots of stayaways and accurately priced lines this week:

Giants (+9) over New England Win NYG 24-20
Packers (-5.5) over Chargers Win GB 45-38
Texans (-10.5) over Cleveland Win Hou 30-12
49ers (-5) over Redskins Win SF 19-11
Bears (+7.5) over Eagles Win Bears 30-24

This Week: 5-0
Season: 22-12

Houston stays at the top for another week with Detroit moving to #2 over Green Bay. It helps to play Tebow and the Broncos. The Bills jumped the most from #14 to #6 and the Cowboys fell six spots, from #3 to #9. Philadelphia, Tennessee, and Atlanta jumped three spots with Atlanta most impressive since they did not play. Cincinnati, Washington, and Denver fell three spots. Washington and Denver did so with hideous performances while Cincinnati won an ugly road game against #31 Seattle.

New Orleans (-4.5) over Tampa Bay Wrong TB 26-20
Oakland (-6.5) over Cleveland Correct Oak 24-17
Houston (+8) over Baltimore Wrong Balt 29-14
Cincinnati (-7) over Indianapolis Correct Cinn 27-17
Carolina (+4) over Atlanta Wrong Atl 31-17
Washington (+1.5) over Philadelphia Wrong Phi 20-13
Pittsburgh (-12) over Jacksonville Wrong Pitt 17-13
Green Bay (-14.5) over St. Louis Correct 24-3

This Week: 3-5 Season: 17-12

Two bad teams playing terribly. The only Jets strength is defending the pass and Miami can’t pass. Seems like the Jets would be the pick but their offense has been horrendous. Miami has played a tough schedule but should not be picked on the road giving any less than 10 or 12. Prediction: Stayaway

A properly valued game. Vegas has it essentially at pickem. Minnesota should handle the Bear offense but they can’t throw the ball effectively. The Bears have won one more game but the Viking have played better overall against weaker competition. No value in this game. Pick: Stayaway

Real value here. New Orleans is effectively at throwing the ball and defending the pass. Tampa is not good at either. Both have played a similar schedule strength but New Orleans has performed much better. While Tampa is not as bad as they were against the 49ers, New Orleans is an easy pick giving 4.5. Pick: New Orleans

This game features the best passing attack in New England against a good pass defense. The Patriots defend Brady well while the Cowboys get after the passer. The Patriots pass defense is atrocious while the Cowboys are close to New England in throwing efficiency. However, the Patriots force turnover and the Cowboys give the ball away at a high rate. It is tempting to take the seven points, but if this game holds to form for Patriots contests, the Pats will get out to a lead, go into prevent, Romo will rack up yards and points, but the Patriots will win. The Cowboys could cover while scoring a lot, but who knows. They have been one of the most effective teams in the league but are only at .500. Prediction: Stayaway

Two teams similar in many respects. The Raiders are average at throwing the ball and the Browns are average at defending it. Teams can dictate tempo on the ground against the Browns and the Raiders will likely do that. Cleveland is not great throwing or dictating tempo. The Raiders are simply the better team. Pick: Raiders

Normally, this should be an even game. Both teams have played well all year. Houston is effective on offense and defense while the Raven are great defensively and average on offense. Should be a 3-4 point line at Baltimore. The Texas have lost impact players on both sides of the ball in Andre Johnson and Mario Williams. The temptation is to take the eight points and I will do so but don’t feel great about it. However, the line reflects the Baltimore performance against Mark Sanchez and Matt Schaub is much better. Flacco is Flacco. Pick: Texans.

The Bills don’t defend the pass well but they get turnovers, the Giants weakness. The line reflects the disaster last week by the Giants against Seattle and the Bills beating Philadelphia. Both Seattle and Philly are not good. If Buffalo holds on to the ball and protects Fitzpatrick, two things they have done well this year and the strength of the Giants defense, they should win outright. Pick: Stayaway. I thought Buffalo but it is to early in the year to expect turnover and assume they will continue to happen on either end

A terrible game on tap. Cincinnati is not great passing but Indianapolis is awful against the pass. The Colts are not great passing the ball and Cincinnati can stop the pass. That should be worth the 4 points above the 3 for home field. Pick: Bengals

Seems too easy. The Falcons are terrible on offense and Carolina is terrible against the pass. The Panthers can pass and the Falcons can’t defend it. Pick: Carolina.

Best game of the weekend. Two teams playing well and both great at holding on to the ball and taking it away from their opponent, with the 49ers great at dictating tempo on both sides of the ball. Predicting turnovers is harder than picking games. Priced about right with two “surprise” teams. Both performing well against below average opposition. Pick: Stayaway

Seems too easy with the Redskins playing well and Eagles not. The Eagles have no business being 1.5 favorites on the road against a team playing better than they are. Pick: Redskins

Difficult to see how Jacksonville will score given how they are the second worst passing the ball and the Steelers are the best at defending the pass. Should be a good test for Rothlesberger (however you spell his name) against a good pass defense. 12 points is a lot for only a slightly above average team who can’t protect their QB, but Jacksonville is not a good team. Pick: Steelers.

Not enough points for Green Bay here. The Packers throw the ball well and the Rams are OK at defending it. However, the Rams have no ability to exploit the Packers pass defense as they are the worst team in the league throwing the ball. Pick: Packers

The Giants, Chargers, and Packers have had the easiest schedules so far. Expect some losses coming up, especially for the Chargers as they are playing like an average team. The Falcons and Browns could face a long season. Minnesota has played an easy schedule, have performed well statistically but have only won one game. This is likely to be a weird season for them, especially playing in a division with two undefeated teams. The 49ers, Ravens, and Redskins have feasted on an easy schedule that will get tougher. The Colts have played an easy schedule so far and have yet to win a game. They will likely not get many this year.

The Cowboys, Jets, Rams, and Broncos have had the toughest schedules so far this year. The Saints, Raiders, Steelers, and Cowboys to a lesser extent have thrived despite their early draw.

The following 9 teams have lost at least a half game more so far than what their current team statistics indicate they should have. The Cowboys and Texans are the only teams with at least a .500 record so far on this list. Most are teams who have only one a game. Minnesota has been the biggest underachiever, losing at least two more games than their statistics indicate they should have. The lines might start discounting these teams so there might be some value in wagering on them in the next several weeks

The following 10 teams have won at least a half game more so far than what their current team statistics indicate they should have. San Diego, Tampa, Seattle, and Green Bay all have won at least one more game than they should have. This list includes 7 winning teams and 3 losing teams. Last year, San Diego was one of the biggest underachievers. They won 9 games but their stats project them as a 11 game winner (.717).

Buffalo (+3) over Philadelphia Win Buff 31-24
Oakland (+5) over Houston Win Oak 25-20
New Orleans (-6.5) over Carolina Loss NO 30-27
Cincinnati (-2.5) over Jacksonville Win Cinn 30-20
Tennessee (+3) over Pittsburgh Loss Pitt 38-17
NY Giants (-10) over Seattle Loss Seattle 36-25
San Francisco (-3) over Tampa Bay Win SF 48-3
San Diego (-3.5) over Denver Win SD 29-24
Green Bay (-6.5) over Atlanta Win GB 25-14
Detroit (-5) over Chicago Win Det 24-13

This week: 7-3. Season: 14-7

Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-2.5)
Arizona @ Minnesota (-2.5)
New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-9)

Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-2.5)
Two bad teams not playing well. Both teams are terrible on offense and defense. They have roughly similar projected winning percentages and have played a tough schedule (results from opposing teams playing them). This game is a tossup and the line reflects that. Stayaway.

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